A new poll reveals surprising trends among Hispanic voters in key southwestern states.

Fox News reported that recent surveys conducted in Arizona and Nevada show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump among Hispanic voters. However, the polls also indicate that Trump has made significant gains with younger male Hispanic voters compared to the 2020 election.

The Suffolk University/USA Today surveys, released on Monday, provide insight into the voting preferences of Hispanic Americans in two crucial battleground states. These states and five others are expected to play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election between Harris and Trump.

In Arizona, the poll shows Harris leading Trump among Hispanic voters by a margin of 57% to 38%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver received less than 1% support, while 3% of voters remain undecided. When asked about their voting history, 55% of these Hispanic voters reported voting for President Biden in 2020, while 33% said they had supported Trump.

Nevada Shows Narrower Gap Between Candidates

The gap between Harris and Trump is slightly narrower in Nevada, with the Vice President leading 56% to 40% among Hispanic voters.

Independent American Party candidate Joel Skousen received just over 1% support, while Libertarian Chase Oliver garnered less than 1%. In this state, 2% of Hispanic voters remain undecided.

When comparing these results to the 2020 election, 56% of respondents in Nevada said they had voted for Biden, while 33% reported voting for Trump. This suggests a slight shift in voter preferences over the past four years.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, highlighted an important observation from the poll results:

So far, Harris is falling short of the 24-26 point advantage that Joe Biden carried with Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada in 2020, according to the exit polls from those states. This Democratic shortfall is largely due to young Hispanic men.

Trump's Gains Among Younger Hispanic Men

One of the most notable findings from the surveys is Trump's improved performance among younger Hispanic male voters. In Nevada, Trump leads Harris 53% to 40% among Hispanic men ages 18-34 and 53% to 39% among those ages 35-49.

A similar trend is observed in Arizona, where Trump holds a 51% to 39% lead over Harris among Hispanic men ages 18-34 and an even more substantial 57% to 37% advantage among those ages 35-49. These figures represent a significant shift from the 2020 election results and could potentially impact the overall outcome in these swing states.

The economy and immigration were identified as the top two issues of concern for Hispanic voters in both Arizona and Nevada. This focus on economic matters and border policies may partly explain the shift in support among certain demographic groups.

Abortion Access Referendums Gain Support

The surveys also touched on upcoming ballot measures in both states. Arizona and Nevada will have referendums to protect access to abortion on their November ballots.

According to the poll results, these measures enjoy majority support in both states, indicating that reproductive rights remain a significant issue for many voters.

This finding suggests that while some Hispanic voters may be shifting their support in the presidential race, there is still strong backing for certain progressive policies, particularly those related to healthcare and personal freedoms.

Implications For The 2024 Election

The Suffolk University/USA Today surveys were conducted from September 27 to October 2, 2024, through live interviews with 500 self-identified Hispanic voters in each state. The overall sampling error for results from each state is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

These poll results come at a critical time, with less than a month remaining until Election Day. Arizona and Nevada, along with Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are considered the key battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

The current surveys indicate that the races in these swing states remain extremely close, with Harris and Trump separated by margins within the polls' margins of error. This suggests that the Hispanic vote could play a crucial role in determining the final outcome of the election.

Conclusion

The polls reveal a complex picture of Hispanic voter preferences in Arizona and Nevada. While Vice President Harris maintains an overall lead among Hispanic voters, former President Trump has made significant gains, particularly among younger Hispanic men. The economy and immigration remain top concerns for these voters, potentially influencing their voting decisions. With abortion access referendums gaining support and the races in swing states remaining tight, the Hispanic vote could prove decisive in the 2024 presidential election.