A veteran California private investigator says he believes the abduction of Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of "Today" show host Savannah Guthrie, was a "money-making venture by people involved with a cartel." The theory, offered by Bill Garcia, a PI with more than 35 years of experience, adds a sharp new dimension to a case that has gripped the country since Guthrie was reported missing from her Tucson home on Feb. 1.

Authorities have said she was likely taken from her residence overnight. The FBI has released surveillance images of a masked suspect seen at her front door in the early hours of the morning she disappeared. Officials have ruled out a burglary gone wrong. Blood was found on the porch, but not leading away from the home.

Law enforcement officials have cleared family members of wrongdoing. The motive remains unclear. And now, three weeks in, the most concrete public theory is coming not from the FBI but from a private investigator talking to Border Report.

Garcia's Theory: Low-Level Cartel Associate, Not a Professional

Garcia pointed to the surveillance footage as the foundation of his analysis. He told Border Report the suspect's behavior betrays inexperience, arguing the individual "doesn't appear to be very sophisticated."

"He does things a professional would not do. For instance, the way he approaches the camera … why would he pick up some shrubbery as it didn't effectively cover up the camera?"

Garcia cited the suspect's clothing and gear as further evidence that this was not a polished operation. His assessment was blunt:

"Just the appearance and mannerisms makes me believe it is a low-level associate."

Garcia believes that if Nancy Guthrie came to the front door and encountered the suspect, some type of struggle likely occurred after the camera was removed. He suspects she was then forced back inside. The New York Post shares.

The geographic logic of Garcia's theory is specific. He does not believe Guthrie was transported south of the border, pointing to the heavy law enforcement presence that would make such a move extraordinarily risky. Instead, he believes she may be held in the stretch of desert between Tucson and the Phoenix metro area:

"They would have to choose a location that's safe and where they're less likely to be caught in the act — that's why I suspect she would be somewhat north of Tucson in that hundred-to-130-mile area between Tucson and outside of Phoenix and Mesa Arizona."

As for why a cartel would target an 84-year-old woman, Garcia's reasoning hinges on geography and opportunity:

"That particular area of Arizona is a high drug and money transporting area. It has deepened my believe that this is in some way related to a money-making venture by people involved with a cartel."

What Authorities Are and Aren't Saying

Authorities have not publicly endorsed Garcia's cartel theory. Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos has said Guthrie could have been taken as "revenge for something," a characterization that opens different investigative doors entirely. Nanos has also claimed his team's evidence puts her in Tucson.

Meanwhile, FBI sources said this week that Guthrie may be in Mexico. Unnamed sources told TMZ the FBI had been in contact with Mexican officials about the case. That directly contradicts Garcia's assessment, though neither the FBI nor the sheriff's office has offered a unified public account of where they believe the investigation stands.

Leon Boyer, a Border Patrol officer and expert on Mexican security, previously said he does not believe cartels would be involved. So even among those offering informed speculation, the picture fractures.

Garcia, for his part, said he "would never push himself onto an investigation." He is not working the case officially. But his track record lends some weight to his observations. In 2002, he located the body of a child who had gone missing after authorities had spent weeks searching without success, according to Border Report.

Three Weeks, No Answers, and a Border That Matters

What is undeniable is the setting. Tucson sits in one of the most active corridors for cartel activity in the United States. Drug trafficking, human smuggling, and the violent enterprise that sustains both have turned southern Arizona into a permanent conflict zone for law enforcement. The idea that cartel-connected individuals might commit a crime of opportunity in this region is not exotic speculation. It is a reflection of the conditions that border communities live with daily.

For years, Americans have been told that border security is a political abstraction, a talking point rather than a public safety imperative. Cases like this one force the conversation back to concrete terms. An 84-year-old woman was taken from her home in the middle of the night in a city that sits roughly 60 miles from the border. Whether or not the cartel theory proves correct, the fact that it is plausible at all tells you everything about the state of the southern border.

The FBI is investigating. The sheriff's office is investigating. A private investigator is offering theories on television. And Nancy Guthrie is still missing.

Three weeks is a long time for an 84-year-old woman to survive whatever she is surviving. Every day without answers is a day the people responsible grow more comfortable. The family is left with silence from officials and speculation from everyone else.

Someone knows where Nancy Guthrie is. The question is whether the people with badges and resources will find her before it no longer matters.