New York lost a larger share of the nation's millionaires than any other state over the past decade, and the price tag is staggering. A new analysis from the Citizens Budget Commission found the Empire State's shrinking slice of high-income taxpayers cost it an estimated $10.7 billion in personal income tax revenue in tax year 2022 alone, a finding that lands squarely on the desk of a mayor who wants to squeeze even more from the wealthy.

The CBC's "Competitive NYS: Value Proposition Tracker," released Monday, documents a decline that should alarm anyone who depends on New York's budget, which is to say, everyone who lives there. In 2010, New York claimed the second-largest share of America's millionaires at 12.7%. By 2022, that figure had fallen to 8.7%, dropping the state to fourth place behind California, Texas, and Florida.

The raw numbers tell the story in sharper relief. New York's millionaire count doubled over that period. But California and Texas tripled theirs. Florida quadrupled. New York added roughly 34,000 millionaires in absolute terms, yet the rest of the country grew so much faster that the state's relative position collapsed.

A revenue model built on a shrinking base

The consequences are not abstract. Jared Walczak, an economist and senior fellow at the Tax Foundation, told the New York Post why the math matters so much:

"In New York, the top 1% of earners pay about 45% of all state income taxes in any given year, so New York's revenue is very reliant on high earners to stay in New York, and that has been a challenge in recent years."

That reliance makes every departure count. And New York has been losing residents to every state it tracks, with Florida and Texas absorbing the largest numbers. The CBC study found that whatever population rebound New York City experienced in 2023 and 2024 was driven by international immigrants, not by the return of the tax-paying residents who left during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the state already collects more in state and local taxes per capita than anywhere else in the country. At $12,495 per person, New York's per capita tax burden sits 78% above the national average. The Tax Foundation currently ranks the Empire State dead last for competitiveness.

Abir Mandal, a senior state policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, offered a blunt assessment:

"Without reforming the tax structure New York won't be competitive for attracting population and business."

Mandal added a line that should hang over every policy debate in Albany: "Wall Street is the golden goose. But for how long?"

Mamdani's response: raise taxes anyway

Mayor Zohran Mamdani's answer to the revenue squeeze is to tighten the vise. When asked about the CBC study at an unrelated event Monday, the mayor dismissed concerns about wealthy flight and argued that New York had gained millionaires even after past tax increases.

"I've been very clear about the fact that we live in the wealthiest city in the wealthiest country in the history of the world, and it's unacceptable that one in four New Yorkers are living in poverty, and I believe that the wealthiest can do a little bit more to ensure that everyone can afford to live here."

Mamdani has been pushing a 2% tax increase on millionaires and a corporate tax hike that would push New York City's combined corporate rate above 22%, as Just The News reported. The city already carries the highest combined corporate tax rate in the country at 17.44%. Mamdani has framed these proposals as necessary to close a $12 billion budget deficit he inherited.

Governor Kathy Hochul has firmly opposed an outright income tax hike on the wealthy, calling it a "non-starter" as she seeks re-election in November. Hochul has instead backed a pied-à-terre tax on luxury second homes in New York City, with notices scheduled to go out to owners on August 30.

That pied-à-terre tax prompted Mamdani to post a social media video filmed outside billionaire Ken Griffin's $238 million Manhattan penthouse. Griffin, the hedge fund titan, responded by threatening to pull a $6 billion Park Avenue development, a single transaction that would dwarf whatever the pied-à-terre tax could collect. The mayor's approach to the city's wealthiest residents has raised alarm well beyond Griffin's circle, as his broader pattern of antagonizing institutions and wealth has become a recurring feature of his tenure.

Albany's policy record and the stagnation it produced

The CBC data does not exist in a vacuum. Ken Girardin, a research fellow at the Manhattan Institute, pointed to specific state-level policies that have made New York less attractive to both businesses and residents.

"Albany is directly responsible for the stagnation."

Girardin cited New York's tightened rent control law, approved in 2019, which he said reduced housing supply. He also flagged the state's green energy mandate as a driver of rising energy costs. These sit alongside the income tax hikes that former Governor Andrew Cuomo imposed on high earners during the pandemic, increases that were supposed to be temporary but became part of the fiscal landscape.

Medicaid spending adds another layer of pressure. Under Hochul, the program is expected to reach $58 billion by the end of the decade. That trajectory demands a growing tax base at the exact moment the base is shrinking relative to competitor states.

The fiscal management questions extend beyond taxes. Mamdani's administration has faced scrutiny over how it handles the city's existing resources, including accusations that his education department blocked a City Council audit of $12 billion in contracts.

Upstate pays the steepest price

The CBC's dashboard reveals a state splitting into two economies. A growth corridor stretching from New York City and Long Island up to Albany largely drives the state's output. Outside that corridor, the picture is grim. Upstate and rural regions are hemorrhaging workers. The North Country and Southern Tier have seen consistent population declines.

Justin Wilcox, executive director of Upstate United, said the data should set off alarms:

"It's difficult to not be alarmed by this data. With this CBC tool, Upstate New Yorkers can see for themselves the devastating impacts of Albany's policies, businesses failing to grow, population decline, and the loss of revenue. NYS needs to course correct now before it's too late and we become permanently entrenched in a cycle of fewer people."

Upstate residents have no Wall Street to cushion the blow. They absorb the same regulatory costs, the same energy mandates, and the same tax structure, without the financial sector income that keeps downstate afloat.

Mamdani's willingness to challenge not just state policy but federal authority, including his vow to resist a Supreme Court ruling on Temporary Protected Status, suggests a mayor more interested in ideological positioning than the kind of pragmatic governance that might reassure investors and high earners considering their options.

The affordability trap

Steve Fulop, CEO of the Partnership for New York City, offered perhaps the sharpest warning about who ultimately pays when the wealthy leave:

"If we don't course-correct and get laser-focused on keeping the city and state attractive to the people and businesses that drive our economy, the affordability crisis will only deepen because the people leaving are the ones paying the largest share of a budget that funds the social programs meant to help our most vulnerable."

That is the core contradiction in Mamdani's approach. He frames tax hikes on the rich as a tool to help the poor. But the CBC data shows that the rich are already leaving at a faster rate than they're arriving, and every departure widens the gap between what New York promises and what it can fund.

Walczak, the Tax Foundation economist, connected the dots between city and state policy:

"Gracie Mansion can't do it on its own; it takes Albany. Pied-à-terre will have some impact, but there's this feeling that New York isn't done raising taxes, and with other places being more competitive, it won't be surprising if high-earner taxpayers choose to relocate."

Mandal cited Elon Musk's decision to move his companies from California to Texas as a high-profile example of what happens when states push too hard. New York may not lose a single billionaire as famous as Musk. But it doesn't need to. It just needs to keep losing its share of the 34,000 millionaires who chose to build wealth somewhere else, and the $10.7 billion in revenue they would have generated.

The mayor's conduct in office has done little to signal fiscal discipline or institutional seriousness. Whether it's breaking his own city's rules for a photo op or pursuing confrontational politics with the very taxpayers who fund his budget, Mamdani has established a pattern that makes the CBC's numbers feel less like a warning and more like a forecast.

New York doesn't need a lecture about inequality. It needs a tax base. And the people who fund it are voting with their feet.