Republican Sen. Darline Graham leads her Democratic rival by barely a point in deep-red South Carolina, a new poll shows, raising fresh questions about her hold on the seat.

The Trafalgar Group survey puts Graham at 43.4% and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews at 42.3% among likely voters. The Atlanta-based pollster released the numbers Monday after surveying 1,087 likely general election voters from Wednesday through Friday, with a 2.9% margin of error.

The Daily Caller reported the one-point edge in a state that rarely delivers close Senate contests for Republicans. RealClearPolling showed Graham ahead by 2.6 points as of Monday.

In a solidly conservative state, a race this tight this late is not what most Republicans expected. Graham took the seat after her brother’s death and won a primary runoff with President Donald Trump’s backing. Yet the numbers keep coming in narrow.

Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who passed away July 11. She then defeated Rep. Ralph Norman in the Aug. 25 Republican primary runoff after Trump endorsed her. That path put a familiar name in the job, but it has not produced a comfortable general-election cushion.

Media reaction to the appointment was swift and harsh on the left. Joy Behar labeled the South Carolina Senate appointment the “definition of DEI,” turning a personnel decision into another culture-war flashpoint.

Earlier surveys painted the same picture of a race that refuses to break open. An InsiderAdvantage poll from Sept. 10 had Graham at 45.1% and Andrews at 43.2%. A mid-August Impact Research survey found them tied at 41%. The pattern is consistent: Graham is ahead, but never by much.

Trafalgar’s sample leaned heavily Republican, with 59% of respondents registered Republicans and 29% Democrats. Even with that tilt, Graham’s lead stayed inside the margin of error. Older voters are carrying her. She drew 50.9% support among ages 50, 64 and 50.5% among those 65 and older. Andrews ran stronger with younger voters, posting 59.7% among ages 18, 29 and 52.4% among ages 30, 39.

Her rise through the primary season drew national notice as other races broke the other way. Darline Graham advanced in South Carolina while a democratic socialist lost a Wisconsin governor’s primary, a split-screen moment for both parties.

The closeness has not gone unnoticed on the right. Dylan Housman posted on X that “Trafalgar Group has Darline Graham in a fight for her life... I don't think she will be, but that's a conservative, southern pollster.”

Debate stumble on national security still follows her

Graham’s Aug. 19 primary debate performance remains a live issue. Newsmax host Greta Van Susteren asked a direct foreign-policy question.

Van Susteren asked:

"Senator, are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States? If so, why?"

Graham answered:

"I'm just going to be honest here. I'm not that informed on national security."

She added that she does support the military. The exchange spread quickly. In a state that sends a lot of people into uniform, admitting limited knowledge on core security questions is a liability Democrats will keep using.

Lindsey Graham had built a long record as a vocal hawk. He backed major U.S. involvement overseas and, in a May 2023 statement, called billions sent to Ukraine “the best money [the U.S. has] ever spent.” He also called for the assassination of Russian President Vladimir Putin when the Ukraine war began and supported action related to Iran. His sister has not claimed that same portfolio.

The family story stayed in the news after his death. Trump appeared at Lindsey Graham’s funeral and reprised a familiar cell-phone bit, a reminder of the personal ties that still shape South Carolina politics.

Grassroots Republicans never fully bought in

Even before the general-election polls tightened, parts of the party base were cool to a full term for Graham. South Carolina Freedom Conference Chairman Jordan Pace told reporters the party did not support her serving a full term. State Rep. Jay Kilmartin said many grassroots Republicans were frustrated with her policies and governing style.

Those complaints matter in a low-turnout or base-driven electorate. Trump’s endorsement helped her clear the runoff against Norman. It has not erased doubts among activists who wanted a different direction after Lindsey Graham’s long tenure.

Legislation tied to the late senator continues to move in Washington. The House sent a Lindsey Graham sanctions bill to Trump’s desk on a 262, 159 vote, keeping the family name attached to hard-line foreign-policy measures even as the Senate seat itself looks competitive.

Andrews has not posted major public gaffes in the material surrounding these polls. She simply remains within striking distance in a state Republicans usually lock down early. For a Democratic nominee in South Carolina, that alone is a win on the scoreboard so far.

National media fights keep intersecting with the Graham story. The FCC moved against The View’s news designation while escalating a Disney license probe, the same orbit of outlets that hammered Graham’s appointment from day one.

A red-state race that should not be this close

South Carolina has not been a swing state in recent Senate cycles. A Republican incumbent, appointed, primary-tested, and Trump-endorsed, should be clearing 50% with room to spare by now. Instead, multiple pollsters keep finding a race inside a couple of points.

Trafalgar’s result fits the earlier InsiderAdvantage and Impact Research findings. The lead exists. It is small. And it arrives with a recorded debate answer on national security that opponents will replay until Election Day.

Graham still has the structural advantages: party registration strength in the state, older-voter support, and a Democratic Party brand that usually underperforms in the South. Those advantages have not translated into daylight.

Voters who want secure borders, strong defense, and accountable government will decide whether a one-point poll lead is good enough, or a warning that name recognition and an appointment are not a substitute for command of the job.