Challenger Brandon Herrera now leads incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales by four points in the Texas 23rd Congressional District Republican primary, according to a new Political Intelligence poll shared exclusively with the Daily Caller.

The survey of 422 likely Republican primary voters, conducted between December 17 and 22, found Herrera at 33% to Gonzales' 29% in a full-field scenario.

The gap widens in a head-to-head matchup. With just two names on the ballot, Herrera pulls 43% — with 32% saying they would "definitely" vote for him — while Gonzales manages only 34%. Nearly a quarter of respondents remain undecided, a number that should alarm an incumbent more than a challenger.

For Gonzales, the trajectory is unmistakable — and it's pointing down.

A Collapse in Real Time

Just weeks earlier, things looked different. A Trafalgar Group public poll conducted October 31 through November 1 had Gonzales ahead at 40.4% to Herrera's 35.2%. A five-point incumbent lead isn't comfortable, but it's survivable. What happened between early November and late December turned a contested primary into a race where the challenger now holds the momentum.

The answer traces back to September 14, when Regina Santos-Aviles — Gonzales' regional district director in his Uvalde office and former executive director of the Uvalde Area Chamber of Commerce, died after setting herself on fire in her Uvalde backyard. Multiple sources speaking to 24sight News and the Daily Mail alleged she had been involved in an affair with Gonzales.

A separate Trafalgar Group poll conducted October 26 through 29 reportedly showed Gonzales' support cratering after voters learned of the alleged affair. The congressman didn't publicly address the circumstances surrounding Santos-Aviles' death until nearly two months later, at a one-on-one interview during The Texas Tribune Festival in November.

When he finally spoke, Gonzales pushed back on the allegations while acknowledging the personal attacks:

"People throwing rocks at me, saying I'm doing nasty things — I totally get that. But the rumors are completely untruthful."

He also urged the public to remember Santos-Aviles on her own terms:

"I would hope that everyone remembers her for her passion, for her job, her commitment to the community."

The death remains under investigation. Gonzales has denied the affair. But in a Republican primary, perception often moves faster than official conclusions — and the polling reflects it.

The Trump Endorsement Factor

On December 18 — right in the middle of the PI poll's field dates — President Trump posted on Truth Social that Gonzales has his "COMPLETE and Total Endorsement for Re-Election." That endorsement is the most significant card in Gonzales' hand, and in many Republican primaries, it would be the only card that matters.

Yet the PI numbers suggest that even with a presidential endorsement landing mid-survey, Herrera still came out ahead. That's a data point worth sitting with. Trump's support clearly shores up Gonzales' floor — the incumbent's 23% "definitely" voting for him in a two-candidate matchup likely includes a core of Trump-trusting loyalists. But Herrera's 32% "definitely" in the same scenario tells you where the energy is.

This isn't a race where the challenger is borrowing enthusiasm. He owns it.

Herrera's Lane

Brandon Herrera, an entrepreneur and Second Amendment activist, is running squarely in the populist-conservative lane that has reshaped Republican primaries over the last several cycles. He isn't shy about the contrast he's drawing. In a statement to the Daily Caller, Herrera framed the race in terms Republican primary voters understand immediately:

"Texas is tired of woke Tony Gonzales. The only thing worse than his voting record is his character. I'm giving Texas 23 what they deserve, a pro-gun, pro-life, pro-Trump congressman."

That's not a message crafted by a committee. It's a direct shot — voting record, personal character, and ideological positioning, all in three sentences. In a district where the conservative base already had reservations about Gonzales' record before the Santos-Aviles story broke, Herrera is running into an open door.

What the undecideds signal

The 23% undecided in the two-candidate matchup is the number both campaigns are staring at. For Gonzales, undecideds in a primary are rarely good news for an incumbent. Voters who know you and haven't committed to you are voters looking for a reason to leave. Herrera doesn't need to win all of them. He just needs enough to keep his margin — and right now, the "definitely" column favors him by nine points.

A Primary That Tells a Bigger Story

Texas' 23rd District has been a battleground within the GOP for years, and this race is shaping up as another test of whether incumbency and institutional endorsements can hold against grassroots energy and a motivated challenger. Gonzales has the presidential endorsement. Herrera has the trend lines.

The personal scandal — alleged or otherwise — accelerated what was already a vulnerability. Gonzales was already drawing primary fire over his voting record before September. The Santos-Aviles story didn't create the race. It compressed it.

Republican primary voters in TX-23 now face a straightforward choice: an incumbent backed by the president but bleeding support, or a challenger who has turned a rematch into a lead. The undecideds will decide this. But if momentum means anything in a primary, Brandon Herrera isn't just competitive anymore. He's ahead.