Former Crime Prevention Research Center president John R. Lott Jr. challenges the American Immigration Council's deportation cost projections in a groundbreaking analysis.

According to The Populist Times, the American Immigration Council's estimate of $316 billion for mass deportation costs has been significantly inflated, potentially by up to seven times the actual amount based on historical data.

Senior Fellow Aaron Reichlin-Melnick's testimony before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee sparked controversy when he claimed the minimum cost for mass deportation would reach $316 billion.

Senator Dick Durbin highlighted this figure during the hearing, drawing attention to the substantial financial implications of such an operation.

Cost Analysis Reveals Significant Overestimation in Deportation Expenses

The AIC's calculations suggest that deporting one million illegal immigrants would cost approximately $88 billion annually, breaking down into arrests ($7 billion), detention ($66 billion), legal processes ($12.6 billion), and transport ($2.1 billion).

These figures average about $88,000 per individual under conservative estimates, potentially reaching nearly $968 billion over a decade.

Lott's analysis indicates several flaws in these projections, particularly regarding detention costs. The AIC's assumption that all deportees must be detained simultaneously for a full year significantly inflates the estimates. Historical data shows average detention periods typically last less than two months.

Current infrastructure already includes 41,500 detention facilities, reducing the need for extensive new construction. The AIC's projected daily detention costs of $237 per individual and $482 for families far exceed actual federal prison costs, which range from $93.50 to $164.87 per day.

Historical Data Demonstrates Lower Per Capita Deportation Costs

Recent deportation cost records paint a different picture than the AIC's projections. Between 2015 and 2022, actual per capita deportation costs averaged $12,124 in 2024 dollars. These figures varied across administrations, with Obama-era costs at $9,767, Trump-era at $11,637, and Biden-era at $15,499.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement budget data from 2002 to 2022 shows average per-deportee costs of $13,706 in 2024 dollars. The most efficient year was 2004, when 1.4 million deportations were carried out with a total ICE budget of $6.1 billion, averaging $4,354 per deportee.

These historical figures suggest the AIC's estimate of $88,000 per deportation significantly exceeds actual costs by approximately 600%.

Crime Costs Versus Deportation Expenses Show Stark Contrast

The financial impact of crimes committed by undocumented individuals presents a compelling argument for deportation.

Estimates indicate that while deporting 662,566 illegal immigrants with criminal records would cost $8 billion, the cost of victimization from their crimes reaches approximately $166.5 billion.

Steven A. Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, estimated in 2017 that allowing each illegal immigrant to remain in the country results in a net cost of $63,000. This figure suggests that retention costs substantially exceed deportation expenses over time.

The research demonstrates that crime-related expenses are roughly 21 times higher than deportation costs, challenging the narrative that mass deportation is fiscally irresponsible.

Final Analysis Reveals Long Term Financial Impact

The debate over deportation costs versus retention expenses continues to shape immigration policy discussions. Lott's analysis demonstrates that while mass deportation requires significant initial investment, the long-term financial benefits may outweigh these costs.

The research highlights how actual deportation expenses, based on historical data and existing infrastructure, present a more manageable financial burden than previously suggested by the AIC's estimates.

When combined with the substantial costs of crime and public services associated with illegal immigration, the fiscal argument for deportation becomes increasingly compelling.