Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Florida Democrat, went on Fox Business on Wednesday and said what most economists already know: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's proposed wealth taxes are "not going to work." The reason is simple. Wealthy people have legs, and they use them.

Moskowitz told host Maria Bartiromo that targeted wealth taxes like the ones Mamdani is floating will simply accelerate the migration of high earners out of New York and into tax-friendlier states. Florida, naturally, tops the list.

"These targeted wealth taxes that we see, right, from states, whether it's California, New York, the wealthy can just leave, right? So these are not going to work."

When Bartiromo pressed him on whether he expected to see an "exodus" of New Yorkers heading south, Moskowitz didn't hesitate: "That's already happening."

The numbers back him up. U.S. Census data shows Florida gained roughly 574,000 new residents from other states in 2024, the largest influx of domestic movers of any state that year, The Hill reported. Meanwhile, more than 415,000 people left New York and moved elsewhere in the same period.

Mamdani's Budget Hole and How He Plans to Fill It

Mamdani, who campaigned on an affordability platform, is now staring down a $5.4 billion budget gap. His administration has placed much of the blame on former Mayor Eric Adams, identifying what it called a "pattern of underbudgeted essential services" ranging from rental assistance to special education, which it says widened projected fiscal gaps over the next two years.

Blaming your predecessor is the oldest move in politics. The question is what you do next. Mamdani's answer: raise taxes.

This week, Mamdani floated raising property taxes by 9.5 percent. That's the stick. The carrot, apparently, is a plea to the state legislature to impose a 2 percent income tax hike on New York's wealthiest residents and corporations instead. In a statement outlining his preliminary budget proposal for fiscal 2027, Mamdani framed it as a last resort:

"We do not want to have to turn to such drastic measures to balance our budget. But, faced with no other choice, we will be forced to."

No other choice. A city with one of the largest municipal budgets on Earth, in the wealthiest state in the country, and the only tool in the drawer is a bigger hammer aimed at the people who already pay the most.

A Playbook That Never Works

This is not a new experiment. States and cities have tried wealth taxes before, and the results follow a predictable pattern. Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the Cato Institute, laid it out in a blog post last month:

"Wealth taxes promise redistribution but more often deliver high economic costs, administrative complexity, and disappointing revenue."

High costs, bureaucratic headaches, and revenue that comes in below projections. That's the trifecta. The people targeted by these taxes have the resources and mobility to restructure their finances or simply relocate. The tax base shrinks. The budget hole remains. And the politicians who created the problem start looking for the next group to squeeze.

Moskowitz, to his credit, seems to understand this dynamic even as a Democrat. He told Bartiromo plainly:

"I think the exodus is still going on. I think it will continue."

He also predicted the obvious outcome if Mamdani's plans advance:

"I think that if Mamdani's law were to go forward and he would increase taxes … you'll see more people move here."

"Here" being Florida. No state income tax. No wealth tax proposals. And, increasingly, no shortage of former New Yorkers.

The Real Affordability Crisis

What makes this story particularly galling is that Mamdani ran on affordability. He told New Yorkers he would make the city work for working people. His solution to that promise is a 9.5 percent property tax hike that will land squarely on landlords, who will pass it directly to renters, and a wealth tax scheme designed to chase out the very tax base that funds the city's services.

This is the progressive governance feedback loop in its purest form:

• Spend beyond your means.
• Blame the previous administration.
• Propose taxes that punish productivity and reward government expansion.
• Watch the tax base flee.
• Blame the fleeing tax base for the revenue shortfall.
• Repeat.

California has run this cycle for years. Illinois knows it well. New York City, under Mamdani, appears eager to sprint through it.

The irony is that it took a Democrat from Florida to say on national television what conservative economists have argued for decades. Wealth taxes don't redistribute wealth. They redistribute people. And right now, those people are choosing sunshine, lower taxes, and a government that doesn't treat success as a problem to be solved.

New York keeps raising the price of staying. Florida keeps holding the door open. The Census data tells you who's winning that argument.