Two ransom notes tied to the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of Today show host Savannah Guthrie, contain details that suggest insider knowledge of the crime scene, yet the FBI has concluded none of the notes are genuine.

The Pima County Sheriff's Department released the full text of both notes on July 31, six months after Nancy Guthrie vanished from her Tucson, Arizona, home. The first note, sent to CBS Tucson affiliate KOLD-TV on February 2, just one day after Guthrie was reported missing, was addressed directly to Savannah Guthrie and claimed her mother was alive. The second, sent to the same station on February 6, reversed course entirely: Nancy had "perished shortly after she was taken" and was "buried in nature."

That four-day swing, from a ransom demand with a death threat to an apology letter, is one of several contradictions that have kept investigators and outside experts divided over what the notes actually reveal about the case.

Crime-scene details the note scribbler should not have known

The first note included two specifics that caught investigators' attention. It stated that Nancy Guthrie had a white smartwatch at the foot of her bed and that a floodlight in her backyard had been damaged. Neither detail had been made public when the note arrived at KOLD-TV on February 2.

Ana Belmonte, an assistant professor of forensic psychology at The Chicago School who is unaffiliated with the investigation, told Us Magazine that those details lent the note credibility.

"The inclusion of the information about Nancy's smartwatch and the damaged light indicates the source of the note is likely credible."

Jason Pack, a retired FBI negotiator, reached a similar conclusion. Pack told Fox News the scribbler "knew about the watch on the floor, almost nobody did." Pack also assessed the author's style: "He pens like a native English speaker... And he pens like someone who spends his day sending business email."

Nest doorbell camera footage may show a masked intruder on two separate days near Guthrie's home, and authorities have asked the public to help identify anyone whose behavior changed after that video was released on February 10.

Questions about whether critical doorbell footage may have been compromised by early investigative delays have added another layer of frustration to a case already short on hard answers.

A forensic linguist flags a telling verb-tense shift

Not every expert found the notes convincing. Dr. Carole Chaski, a forensic linguist unaffiliated with the case, zeroed in on a grammatical inconsistency in the first note that she said undermined its authenticity.

"'We have your mother', present tense. 'She is safe but scared', Present tense. 'She will be held for ransom', future. She is being held for ransom. If it's for real, you know. I'm not sure this note is for real. Because of that tense shift."

Chaski explained that the shift to future tense made no logical sense at that point in the note. "The reality is there's no reason for it to shift to the future," she said. The future tense fit later in the note, "she will be released", because that described an event yet to happen. But describing a kidnapping already underway in the future tense was, in her analysis, a red flag that the scribbler was fabricating a scenario rather than reporting one.

Scott Curtis, a retired FBI agent also not working on the case, raised a different objection. Curtis said he doesn't "put a lot of significance" into the notes because they were not handwritten and could therefore have been created by artificial intelligence.

FBI tested the ransom demand, and nobody collected

The most consequential development came from the FBI itself. Federal agents confirmed that none of the ransom notes are believed to be genuine, a finding that applies not only to the two notes released on July 31 but also to a third note, not previously reported in detail, that claimed knowledge of the kidnappers' identities.

Agents tested the notes' authenticity by depositing cryptocurrency into the account listed in the ransom demand. No one ever claimed the funds. A senior FBI official stated plainly: "None of the ransom notes are believed to be genuine."

That conclusion raises a question that cuts to the core of the investigation. As Reuters reported, the disclosure "seemed to raise doubts about investigators' fundamental premise that Nancy Guthrie was abducted for ransom to begin with." If the notes are fakes, the motive behind her disappearance remains unknown, and investigators may be working a case whose basic framework no longer holds.

The FBI's determination that all three notes were fraudulent did not close the case. It widened the field of possibilities.

Authorities treated the disappearance as a crime from the start

Investigators moved quickly after Nancy Guthrie was reported missing on February 1. She had failed to attend a virtual church service, an absence that prompted concern. DNA samples taken from her home were confirmed to belong to her, and authorities described the condition of the home as "concerning." Her daily medication had been left behind.

The Pima County Sheriff's Department treated the case as a crime from the outset, concluding that Guthrie did not leave voluntarily. Sheriff Chris Nanos told Newsmax simply: "We gotta find her." The FBI joined the investigation early, providing analytical and technical support including analysis of video and cellphone data.

DNA testing also confirmed that blood found on Nancy Guthrie's front porch matched the 84-year-old missing woman, a detail that reinforced investigators' belief that something violent had occurred at the home.

One veteran investigator has suggested Guthrie may have been targeted by someone local who knew the family, a theory consistent with the note scribbler's apparent familiarity with the interior of her home.

Why release the notes six months later?

Brian Entin, a senior national correspondent for NewsNation who shared exclusive commentary with Us Magazine, said the timing of the release was strategic.

"I think the sheriff's office officially releasing the notes was probably trying to capitalize on that six-month moment."

Entin added that it "would be a good time to release the notes and that maybe it could drum up some new interest and maybe an important tip to come in." The Pima County Sheriff's Department echoed that reasoning in its own statement, saying the notes "provide valuable insight into the mindset, motives and the evolution of their tone over time."

The strategy appears to have produced modest results. Angelica Carrillo, a public information officer for the Pima County Sheriff's Office, told the New York Post that "Nancy Guthrie Task Force investigators have seen a slight increase in tips since the two ransom notes were released last week. All tips have been followed up on."

Over $1.2 million in reward money remains unclaimed.

Second note's apology deepens the contradiction

The second note, sent February 6 and addressed to the Guthrie family, abandoned the ransom demand entirely. It claimed Nancy had died "shortly after she was taken" due to pre-existing health conditions. Just The News reported the note stated the scribblers "did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition" and "never intended to hurt her."

The note closed with an apology: "We want your family to know this and hope you all can find peace. We are truly sorry." It told the family, "Nothing you could have done could have changed the outcome."

Savannah Guthrie, 54, responded publicly. "We received your message and we understand," she said. "We beg you now to return our mother to us. This is very valuable to us, and we will pay." Her plea for help reflected a family caught between a ransom demand and a death notification, unsure which, if either, to believe.

Sheriff Nanos has assured the public that investigators are still working the case. The FBI tipline, 1-800-CALL-FBI, remains open, and tips can be submitted anonymously.

Six months in, the case has produced DNA evidence, doorbell footage, retired agents predicting the suspect will eventually crack, and three ransom notes the FBI says are all fraudulent. What it has not produced is Nancy Guthrie, or a single person in handcuffs.

An 84-year-old woman left her medication on the counter, and six months later the people responsible for finding her are still sorting real clues from fake letters. Somewhere, someone knows what happened, and the longer the silence holds, the louder the failure gets.