BY Benjamin ClarkJuly 8, 2024
2 weeks ago
 | July 8, 2024
2 weeks ago

Republicans Target New Hampshire As Polls Show Democrat Vulnerability

Despite years of Democratic victories, New Hampshire could shift red in the upcoming presidential election.

According to the Washington Examiner, former President Donald Trump may seize the chance to win New Hampshire, leveraging perceived debate missteps by President Joe Biden.

Historically, New Hampshire has stood as a Democratic bastion in presidential races. However, recent political tides suggest a changing landscape, with President Joe Biden’s debate performance raising concerns about his reelection prospects. Republicans, energized by these developments, view this as a pivotal opportunity.

Biden's Debate Sparks New Hampshire Doubts

During a recent debate, commentators and the public critiqued President Biden's performance as lackluster, igniting discussions within the Democratic ranks about his effectiveness and appeal as the incumbent.

This event has precipitated doubt about his ability to secure New Hampshire again, which he won by a 7 percent margin in 2020.

In response to the shifting political sentiment, two significant polls have illustrated troubling trends for the Democrats. Saint Anselm College’s Survey Center suggests a lead for Trump by 2 points, while the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center signals a less comfortable lead for Biden than previously anticipated.

Trump Campaign Highlights Biden's Policy Issues

Amplifying the challenge for Biden, Trump campaigned in Londonderry, New Hampshire, in January 2024.

The Trump campaign has been vocally critical of Biden’s policies, attributing increased inflation, heightened energy costs, and housing market downturns to the current administration’s directives.

“Joe Biden abandoned New Hampshire when he canned our first in the nation primary, and his policies have given our state more inflation, record-high energy bills, an increasingly unaffordable housing market, and an immigration crisis at our northern Canadian border,” stated Karoline Leavitt, Trump campaign spokeswoman.

Leavitt further argues that these issues have positioned Trump favorably to "flip it red for the first time in more than twenty years," capitalizing on the perceived dissatisfaction with Biden's leadership.

Changing Voter Sentiments in New Hampshire

New England College president Wayne Lesperance noted a perceptible drift of Democratic support towards independent candidates, questioning whether Biden’s candidacy still resonates with the state’s voters.

“Biden’s performance at the most recent debate has pushed Democrats to question his ability to campaign, win, and govern,” he said, highlighting the potential fallout from Biden’s debate performance.

Adding to this sentiment, Christopher Ager remarked on the palpable shift towards Trump post-debate, noting it as a momentum change favoring the Republican front-runner in New Hampshire. Neil Levesque from Saint Anselm College echoed similar concerns but noted that despite dwindling enthusiasm among very liberals, Biden might still secure their reluctant votes.

The political shift is further evidenced by Republican Jay Ruais’ victory in the mayoral race in Manchester in 2023, signifying a notable Republican advance in traditionally Democratic terrains.

Operational Strategies and Campaign Dynamics

Amid these developments, the operational footprints of both campaigns reveal contrasting strategies. The Biden campaign maintains a robust presence with 14 offices across New Hampshire, reflecting a significant investment in grassroots mobilization and voter engagement initiatives.

In contrast, the Trump campaign has established only one office in the state, focusing instead on targeted communications and large-scale rallies to energize the base and attract undecided voters. Their approach underscores a strategic bet on digital outreach and national narratives over localized campaign infrastructure.

Thus, the 2024 race for New Hampshire not only highlights shifting voter allegiances but also diverging campaign tactics, each aiming to capitalize on unique aspects of voter behavior and political sentiment within the state.


In conclusion, New Hampshire’s status in the 2024 presidential race has transformed from a secure Democratic stronghold into a critical battleground. Trump's campaign efforts, Biden’s debate challenges, and changing voter attitudes create a highly competitive and strategically significant contest. With Republicans optimistic about flipping the state and Democrats working hard to retain their foothold, New Hampshire is unmistakably a state to watch in the coming election.

Written by: Benjamin Clark



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