A CBS News/YouGov survey finds the Texas U.S. Senate race essentially tied between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with the finish now hanging on turnout.

The poll of registered Texas voters puts the contest up for grabs in the closing weeks and frames Republican turnout as the decisive variable. Interviews ran from October 8 to 16, 2026, and the same survey gives incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the governor’s race.

CBS News and YouGov surveyed 1,492 registered voters, weighted to gender, age, race, and education from U.S. Census figures and to the 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±3.4 points among registered voters and ±3.5 points among likely voters.

Texas still leans Republican overall and holds more Republicans than Democrats. Few voters call themselves liberal. That baseline helps Paxton. Yet the poll shows a race that remains tight enough to keep both campaigns under pressure, the kind of narrow-margin fight familiar from other recent Senate battles such as the razor-thin 50-49 confirmation of Todd Blanche.

Cost of living sits as the top issue for Texas voters. Most say higher prices have hit them hard. Among those voters, Talarico holds a sizable lead over Paxton. That economic pressure is the clearest opening the Democrat has in a state that otherwise favors the GOP.

Character ratings and a “very liberal” label cut both ways

More voters see Talarico as having the right personal character to serve as senator. That perception boosts him even as nearly half view him as “very liberal.” When voters apply that label, they break for Paxton.

Talarico also peels off a slice of the other side. He draws 5% of self-identified Republicans and 9% of people who say they never vote for Democrats, but will this time. Abbott, meanwhile, picks up backing from 7% of Talarico’s voters in the governor’s race, a reminder that ticket-splitting still exists.

Those crosscurrents matter in a year when other tight Senate contests have drawn national attention, including coverage of how high-profile moves can shape a close Senate race.

Trump support and deportation strength anchor Paxton’s base

A large share of Paxton’s Republican support is framed as backing for President Trump. The Trump administration’s deportation program also draws more support in Texas than it did in the most recent CBS News national poll. That gap gives Paxton a structural advantage on border enforcement that travels well with the state’s GOP lean.

Paxton’s path runs through the party’s core: voters who back him as the GOP nominee, voters who want to stop Talarico, and voters who want to stand with Trump. When those groups show up, the Republican hold on Texas remains intact. When they do not, the race stays live.

That same Paxton-Trump alignment has already produced sharp intraparty friction elsewhere, including the fight captured when Trump accused Sen. John Cornyn of using the Blanche confirmation as payback tied to the Paxton endorsement.

Latino shift, young voters, and Democratic intensity lift Talarico

Latino voters in Texas swung toward Trump in 2024. Most now back Talarico. Latinos are also more likely than voters overall to say higher prices have been a hardship, and most do not believe Paxton has the right personal character for the Senate.

Younger voters break for Talarico in large percentages. More Democrats say they will definitely vote, which lifts his standing. His coalition needs strong independent performance, some Republican defection, new voters, and that younger turnout to close the deal in a red state.

Those dynamics echo other recent Texas readings, including a separate survey in which Paxton led Talarico by only half a point, underscoring how little daylight separates the two campaigns.

Turnout decides whether Texas stays red at the top of the ticket

The poll describes the closing stretch as very much up for grabs and dependent on Republican turnout. Abbott’s edge in the governor’s race shows the state’s underlying Republican strength still holds when the incumbent is on the ballot. The Senate line is the tighter test.

Talarico’s gains on prices, character, Latinos, and young voters explain how a Democrat can stay competitive. Paxton’s advantages on party ID, Trump loyalty, and deportation support explain how the Republican still owns the clearer path, if his voters cast ballots.

Nationwide, Republicans are watching similar squeeze plays as Senate races tighten and party lines harden. Texas remains the prize that sets the tone.

In a state that still leans right, a dead heat is a warning: prosperity concerns and soft character attacks can erase a structural advantage overnight if the conservative base stays home.